U.S. treasuries remain flat ahead of fomc’s policy decision, may producer price inflation
The U.S. Treasuries traded flat Wednesday, as investors wait to watch the country’s producer price inflation (PPI) data for the month of May, scheduled to be released today by 12:30GMT and the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) policy statement, also due later today will provide added direction in the debt market.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasuries hovered around 2.95 percent, the super-long 30-year bond yields steadied at 3.09 percent and the yield on the short-term 2-year too remained flat at 2.54 percent by 11:20GMT.
The main event today will obviously be the conclusion of the FOMC’s latest policy meeting. A further 25bp rate hike, lifting the fed funds rate target range to 1.75-2.0 percent, is fully priced by the market. So, most interest will centre on the Fed’s update projections and Chair Powell’s post-meeting press conference for clues on how policy is likely to evolve over the remainder of this year. The recent economic data-flow would suggest that the Fed’s median forecasts for GDP and inflation this year will be revised up, while the median forecast for the unemployment rate seems likely to be revised down.
However, given the deterioration in the external environment over the past quarter, the dot-plots for the fed funds rate at end-2018 might yet prove to be a touch more dovish than those published three months ago. Changes to the wording in the FOMC’s statement are also anticipated, with policy perhaps set to be described as approaching neutral rather than accommodative, and the sentence indicating that the federal funds rate is likely to remain below its long-run level to be dropped or weakened, Daiwa Capital Markets reported.
Source: FXWire Commentary