Thursday , April 26 2018
Home » Blogs » FX/RATES DAYBOOK ASIA: Dollar Slumped Friday, Treasuries Rose, By Anna Windemuth

FX/RATES DAYBOOK ASIA: Dollar Slumped Friday, Treasuries Rose, By Anna Windemuth

(Bloomberg) — The dollar fell Friday amid soft U.S. GDP
and employment cost index data; Treasuries gained.
* TODAY
** China mfg and non-mfg PMI; Japan industrial production, loans
and discounts corp, vehicle production, housing starts,
construction orders; Australia HIA new home sales, Melbourne
Institute inflation, private sector credit; New Zealand building
permits, ANZ activity outlook and business confidence; India
eight infrastructure industries, fiscal deficit; Singapore
credit card bad debts, credit card billings, bank loans and
advances; Philippines bank lending; Thailand capacity
utilization, mfg production index, trade, current account; Sri
Lanka CPI; Macau trade; Hong Kong budget
** Money supply: Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines,
Hong Kong

FRIDAY TRADING SESSIONS
* Europe
** The Swiss franc was worst performer in G-10 group; EUR/CHF up
1% to 1.13778; EUR/USD up 0.3% to 1.1710
** Bund futures were pressured lower after regional German
inflation prints pointed to higher national headline CPI data,
which was later confirmed; losses pared into close as attention
turned to month-end, leaving yields within 1bp of Thursday’s
closing levels
** Stoxx Europe 600 down 1%; Renault’s 5.1% loss pulled down
carmakers; miners snapped three-day advance
* U.S.
** The dollar stayed close to a 14-month low as data reinforced
the notion that U.S. inflation pressures are subdued; Bloomberg
dollar index lower by ~0.3%; EUR/USD rose to 1.1764; USD/JPY
fell to 110.55 following North Korea missile launch
** USTs maintained early gains after soft data; 10Y futures
volumes above recent average; 5,000 TYU7 block trade
($390k/DV01) pushed contract up to 125-22 from 125-18
** Most stocks fell amid disappointing earnings that have
weighed on technology shares; the S&P 500 dropped 0.1%

TOP OVERNIGHT NEWS
* Australian Airport Security Tightened After Plot to Down Plane
** Security checks at all major Australian airports have been
ramped up following a counter-terrorism operation that foiled an
alleged plot to bring down a plane.
* Charter is Said Cool to SoftBank’s Sprint Plan, Still Talking
** Company is cool to Japanese billionaire Masayoshi Son’s
proposal to combine with his Sprint Corp, though talks remain
active
* Libor’s Demise by 2021 Hastens Quest for Benchmark
Replacements
** Different regions are considering various replacements for
the global borrowing benchmark slated for expiration in 2021.
* Buybacks Are Back in Hong Kong Stocks, Giving Rally Extra
Boost
** Companies listed in the city have poured an estimated HK$25
billion ($3.2 billion) into repurchasing their own shares this
year through July 25, the highest for the period since 2008
* China Bets Trump Won’t Resort to Strike Against North Korea
** Secretary of State Rex Tillerson singled out China and Russia
as “economic enablers” of North Korea after Kim Jong Un on
Friday test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile for the
second time in a matter of weeks.

KEY VIEWS
* BlackRock’s Watson Says She’s Still Long U.K. Gilts
** Gilts offer investors “decent” yields compared to other
sovereign debt in Europe and globally, BlackRock’s Marilyn
Watson says in Bloomberg Television interview
* End of Libor Could Create Fractured Derivatives Market: BofA
** The most likely scenario may be a fractured derivatives
market with multiple underlying benchmarks across different
countries, BofA strategists Mark Cabana, Shyam Rajan and Carol
Zhang say in note

DATA RELEASED ON FRIDAY
* U.S. Second Quarter Advance GDP Grew 2.6% vs est. 2.7%
* U.S. July Final Michigan Sentiment Fell to 93.4 vs est. 93.2
* U.S. Second Quarter Employment Cost Index Rose 0.5% vs est.
0.6%

ECONOMIC DATA (All times HK):
* TBA: (India) June Eight Infrastructure Industries, prior 3.6%
* TBA: (Philippines) June Money Supply M3 SRF y/y, prior 11.3%
** June Bank Lending Net of RRPs y/y, prior 18.7%
** June Bank Lending y/y, prior 17.4%
* TBA: (Indonesia) June Money Supply M1 y/y, prior 14.04%
** June Money Supply M2 y/y, prior 11.1%
* TBA: (Macau) June Imports y/y, prior 10.4%
** June Exports y/y, prior 7.4%
** June Trade Balance, prior -4.94b
* TBA: (Hong Kong) June Money Supply M1 HKD y/y, prior 14.6%
** June Budget Balance HKD, prior -11.3b
** June Money Supply M3 HKD y/y, prior 15.5%
** June Money Supply M2 HKD y/y, prior 15.5%
* 6:45am: (New Zealand) June Building Permits m/m, prior 7.0%
* 7:50am: (Japan) June Industrial Production m/m, est. 1.5%,
prior -3.6%
** June Industrial Production y/y, est. 4.8%, prior 6.5%
** June Loans & Discounts Corp y/y, prior 3.91%
* 9am: (Australia) June HIA New Home Sales m/m, prior 1.1%
** July Melbourne Institute Inflation y/y, prior 2.3%
** July Melbourne Institute Inflation m/m, prior 0.1%
* 9am: (China) July Manufacturing PMI, est. 51.5, prior 51.7
** July Non-manufacturing PMI, prior 54.9
* 9am: (New Zealand) July ANZ Activity Outlook, prior 42.8
** July ANZ Business Confidence, prior 24.8
* 9:30am: (Australia) June Private Sector Credit y/y, est. 5.2%,
prior 5.0%
** June Private Sector Credit m/m, est. 0.4%, prior 0.4%
* 10am: (Singapore) June Money Supply M1 y/y, prior 8.21%
** June Money Supply M2 y/y, prior 7.22%
** June Credit Card Bad Debts SGD, prior 27.1m
** June Credit Card Billings SGD, prior 4.67b
** June Bank Loans and Advances y/y, prior 6.82%
* 11:30am: (Thailand) June Capacity Utilization ISIC, prior 62.1
** June Mfg Production Index ISIC NSA y/y, est. 1.5%, prior 1.4%
* 12pm: (Japan) June Vehicle Production y/y, prior 5.5%
** 1pm: June Housing Starts y/y, est. 0.1%, prior -0.31%
** 1pm: June Annualized Housing Starts, est. 986,500, prior
997,728
** 1pm: June Construction Orders y/y, prior -0.5%
* 3pm: (Malaysia) June Money Supply M3 y/y, prior 4.7%
* 3:30pm: (Thailand) June Exports y/y, prior 10.6%
** June Exports, prior $19.8b
** June Imports y/y, prior 18.2%
** June Imports, prior $17.6b
** June Trade Balance, prior $2.23b
** June BoP Current Account Balance, est. $2.9b, prior $1.13b
** June BoP Overall Balance, prior $1.63b deficit
* 5:30pm: (Sri Lanka) July CPI y/y, prior 6.1%
** July CPI Moving Average y/y, prior 5.5%
* 7pm: (India) June Fiscal Deficit INR Crore, prior 167,739

GOVERNMENT:
* Nothing major scheduled

CENTRAL BANKS (All times HK):
* 9:10am: BOJ Outright Bond Purchase 10-25 Years
** 4pm: Announcement for Outline of Outright Bond Purchases for
August

BOND SALES/PURCHASES (All times HK):
* For corporate bonds, see New Issue Monitor
* 10:30am: Korea to Sell KRW 1.45t 3-Year Bonds
* 11am: Thailand to Sell THB 5 Bln 91-Day Bills
* 1pm: Philippines to Sell PHP5b PHP6b 91-Day Bills
** Philippines to Sell 182-Day Bills
** Philippines to Sell PHP4b 364-Day Bills
* 1pm: Korea to Sell KRW 900b 91-Day Bills

MARKETS AS OF LATE FRIDAY IN NYC
* USD/JPY -0.5% to 110.65 (range 110.55-111.33)
* EUR/USD +0.6% to 1.1752 (range 1.1671-1.1764)
* AUD/USD +0.2% to 0.7986 (range 0.7937-0.8007)
* NZD/USD +0.5% to 0.7522 (range 0.7461-0.7525)
* USD/CAD -0.9% to 1.2441 (range 1.2420-1.2568)
* GBP/USD +0.6% to 1.3146 (range 1.3062-1.3152)
* USD/CHF +0.5% to 0.9694 (range 0.9634-0.9727)
* 1-mo. USD/TWD NDF +0.1% to 30.208
* USD/CNH -0.1% to 6.7348 (6.7337-6.7483)
* Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index -0.5% to 1156.79
* JPM Emerging Mkt FX Index +0.1% to 69.90
* JPM FX Volatility Index +1.2% to 7.95
* U.S. stocks mixed
** S&P 500 -0.1% to 2472.10
** DJIA +0.2% to 21830
* Commodities:
** WTI Crude +1.4% to $49.73/bbl
** Gold +0.8% to $1,269/oz (range $1,257-$1,271)
** Copper -0.1% to $6,325/mt

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK by Bloomberg strategist Vincent
Cignarella USD/JPY — Back into cloud, thin pattern continues to
suggest trend-less trading

* Resistance: 111.57/64/65 100/50/55 DMAs and Ichimoku
Conversion; 112.20 July 26 high; 112.42 July 20 high; 112.69
July 18 high; 112.86/87 July 13 low/July 17 high
* Support: 110.65 June 16 low; 110.34 June 14 high; 110.00
psychological level
EUR/USD — Testing long-term major trend-line at 1.1732; RSIs
remain overbought

* Resistance: 1.1777 July 27 high; 1.1798 200-week MA; 1.1846
Jan. 14 2015 high
* Support: 1.1650 July 27 low; 1.1631 July 25 low; 1.1583 July
18 high; 1.1557 July 19 high; 1.1510 July 19 low; 1.1472 July 18
low; 1.1435 July 17 low; 1.1392 July 12 low; 1.1371 July 13 low
EUR/JPY — Consolidating, uptrend may have stalled

* Resistance: 130.59 July 25 high; 130.77 July 11 high; 130.91
Feb. 8 2016 high; 131.66 Feb. 4 2016 high
* Support: 129.43 21-DMA; 129.26 July 25 low; 128.87 July 24
low; 128.58 July 19 low; 128.00 July 6 low; 127.83 July 3 low;
127.45 June 30 low; 126.49 June 28 low
AUD/USD –– Testing major trend-line, 3rd standard deviation
from the last 12-months closing price at 0.7988

* Resistance: 0.8000 psychological level; 0.8012 200-week MA;
0.8036 Pivot R1; 0.8066 July 27 high; 0.8089 May 15 2015 high
* Support: 0.7903/01 July 25/24 lows; 0.7878 July 26 low; 0.7838
July 17 high; 0.7778 Nov. 8 high; 0.7750 March 21 high
NZD/USD — Consolidating within uptrend, may be rolling over

* Resistance: 0.7529 July 26 high; 0.7558 May 4 2015 high;
0.7578 May 5 2015 high; 0.7629 May 1 2015 high
* Support: 0.7451 July 25 high; 0.7422 July 24 low; 0.7410 July
26 low; 0.7373 July 18 high; 0.7341 July 19 low; 0.7311 July 17
low; 0.7247 July 13 low; 0.7205/06 June 22/21 lows
USD/KRW 1M Fwd — Spike higher below 100/50-DMAs

* Resistance: 1129.90 July 18 high; 1130.05/1130.65 100/50-DMAs;
1147.97 200-DMA; 1153.09 July 11 high; 1154.20 July 5 high;
1158.45 July 6 high; 1159.30 March 3 high; 1161.25 March 10 high
* Support: 1113.77 July 25 low; 1112.10 July 24 low; 1110.68
Oct. 7 low; 1107.50 Oct. 10 low
* USD/THB — Consolidating losses below 50-DMA
* Resistance: 33.524 July 26 high; 33.606 July 21 high; 33.698
July 20 high; 33.786 July 17 high; 33.926 50-DMA; 33.993 July 13
high; 34.375 May 25 high; 34.268 100-DMA
* Support: 33.290 May 18 2015 low; 33.250 May 7 2015 low; 33.100
May 5 2015 low
USD/SGD — Consolidating within downtrend

* Resistance: 1.3642 July 26 high; 1.3676 July 21 high; 1.3709
July 20 high; 1.3768 July 14 high; 1.3788 July 13 high; 1.3792
50-DMA; 1.3822 July 12 high; 1.3893 100-DMA; 1.4049 200-DMA
* Support: 1.3543 July 27 low; 1.3511 Sept. 22 low; 1.3501 Sept.
9 low
USD/TWD — Pausing within downtrend

* Resistance: 30.412 July 26 high; 30.479 July 24 high; 30.523
July 21 high; 30.643 July 7 high; 30.677 April 12 high; 30.690
April 11 high; 30.787 March 15 low
* Support: 30.128 June 12 low; 30.074 June 8/9 lows; 30.009 May
23 low
USD/MYR — Grinding sideways under 4.2844 50-DMA

* Resistance: 4.2857 July 26 high; 4.2908 July 21 high; 4.2923
July 17 high; 4.2970 July 12 high; 4.3018 July 10 high; 4.3043
July 7 high; 4.3285 May 18 high; 4.3337 May 19 high; 4.3435 100-
DMA; 4.3633 200-DMA; 4.3500 May 12 high; 4.3560 April 28 high
* Support: 4.2733 July 27 low; 4.2663 June 19 low; 4.2505 June
15 low; 4.2410 Nov. 9 high; 4.2270 Nov. 10 low; 4.1995 Nov. 8
low
USD/PHP — Consolidating within uptrend

* Resistance: 50.722 July 26 high; 50.840 July 25 high; 50.920
July 20 high; 50.946 July 19 high; 53.090 Sept. 29 2006 high
* Support: 50.470 July 27 low; 50.430 July 3 low; 50.310 June 28
low; 50.195 50-DMA; 50.103 June 26 low; 50.075 100-DMA;; 49.789
June 19 low; 49.832 200-DMA; 49.455 June 15 low
USD/INR — Pausing within downtrend below 50-DMA

* Resistance: 64.4500 July 26 high; 64.4870 50-DMA; 64.5925 July
11 high; 64.7563 July 7 high; 64.8038 July 6 high; 64.8700 July
5 high; 64.8900 May 23 high; 64.7308 100-DMA
* Support: 64.0638 July 27 low; 63.9750 April 27 low; 63.9313
April 26 low
USD/IDR — Sideways, no clear direction

* Resistance: 13343 July 26 high; 13352 July 14 high; 13381 July
12 high; 13415 July 10 high; 13577 Dec. 5 high; 13609 Dec. 1
high; 13873 Nov. 11 high
* Support: 13307 July 24 low; 13303 July 18 low; 13279 June 20
low; 13272 June 14/15 lows; 13264 May 25 low

To contact the reporter on this story:
Anna Windemuth in New York at awindemuth1@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
Boris Korby at bkorby1@bloomberg.net
Greg Chang, Adam Tempkin

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