Forex – Weekly Outlook: May 14 – 18
Investing.com – Investors will be looking to Tuesday’s U.S. retail sales figures for signs of strength in the economy amid an ongoing debate over how many times the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year.
Alongside the retail data, markets will also be watching reports on the housing sector, manufacturing and industrial production. U.S. – China trade talks will also be in focus.
Elsewhere, markets will get updates on first quarter growth in the euro zone and Japan, while the UK is to release its latest jobs report.
The dollar slid lower against a currency basket for a third day on Friday as investors locked in profits after the U.S. currency hit its highest levels of the year earlier in the week, boosted by expectations for higher interest rates.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, was down 0.14% at 92.44 in late trade, off Wednesday’s four-and-a-half month highs of 93.26.
For the week, the index was almost unchanged after three straight weeks of gains.
The rally in the dollar lost momentum after tame U.S. inflation data on Thursday tempered expectations for a more aggressive pace of monetary tightening by the Fed.
The Fed raised rates in March and projected two more rate hikes this year, although many investors see three hikes as possible.
The euro was higher for a second day, with EUR/USD climbing 0.22% to 1.1941. The single currency still ended the week down 0.12% against the dollar.
The euro has come under pressure after data pointing to a loss of economic momentum in the euro area since the start of the year prompted investors to push back expectations on how soon the European Central Bank will wind up its stimulus program.
On Friday, ECB President Mario Draghi said the euro zone needs a new “fiscal instrument” to help weaker member nations if they are being overly penalized by investors during a debt crisis.
The dollar was little changed against the yen late Friday, with USD/JPY last at 109.39, for a weekly gain of 0.23%.
The pound pushed higher, with GBP/USD rising 0.17% to 1.3542, to eke out a slender weekly gain of 0.08% after three weeks of declines.
Sterling hit four month lows against the dollar on Thursday after the Bank of Englandleft interest rates on hold as expected, but its cut growth and inflation forecasts for this year and next.
Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of significant events likely to affect the markets.
Monday, May 14
Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester is due to speak at an event in Paris.
Tuesday, May 15
The Reserve Bank of Australia is to publish the minutes of its latest policy setting meeting.
China is to release data on fixed asset investment and industrial production.
The UK is to publish its latest employment report.
The euro zone is to release preliminary data on first quarter economic growth.
The ZEW Institute is to report on German economic sentiment.
The U.S. is to produce data on retail sales and manufacturing activity in the New York region.
Wednesday, May 16
Japan is to release preliminary data on first quarter economic growth.
Australia is to report on wage price inflation.
The euro zone is to publish revised inflation figures.
ECB President Mario Draghi is to speak at an event in Frankfurt.
Canada is to report on manufacturing sales.
The U.S. is to release data on building permits, housing starts and industrial production.
Thursday, May 17
Australia is to publish its latest employment report.
The U.S. is to release the weekly jobless claims report along with data on manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.
Friday, May 18
Canada is to round up the week with data on inflation and retail sales.