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Forex Weekly Outlook from May 01, 2017- May 05, 2017

Mo May 1

USD

April 27, 2017 was not really a good day for the US issued economical data. More unemployment claims than expected and Core durable goods orders m/m were also less than expected and the markets pushed the DXY down onward other major currencies. Anyway the DXY can still maintenance its support levels at the lower uptrend line channel. Late this week there is NFP and Average Hourly Earnings m/m again and the markets are likely eying on those events to measure the US economical health.

Technical point of view, just take your look at the depicted chart below for your reference:

 

Tue, Wed, Thu and Fri May 02-05

AUD

We have on that day a very interesting combination of economical events between Australia and China again. The Caixin Manufacturing PMI from China will be released. Reading higher than 50, then there will be a good sign for the neighborhood countries of China, for with strong grow in demanding for Goods, will help Australian economy to boost its exports. Right after, we will have then the Cash rate decision from RBA and RBA statement. By the last Statement, RBA neither expressed for a rate hike. Nor a rate cut. Anyway the markets are looking for how the RBA would estimate further the economical situations currently, to map out what would be the next move for RBA.

Technical point of view, we recognize that the price pattern for Aussie is likely formed a Head and Shoulders patter but in an invert from, that means a pop up in price action can be occurred for a good reason. So take your look at the depicted chart below for more info about:

EUR

Fundamental point of view it seems to be that the markets slowly get rid of the political risk in Europe due to the French election recently. Hence the markets react “happily” about and pushed up the EUR vs. the grennbacks last week to a new high. Some more important events will be occurred this month in May, so the second round of the French election and the FOMC statement and rate decision of Fed this week on Thursday.

Technical point of view, just take your look at the depicted chart below:

GBP

Despite of the economical data now from the UK, whether it is bad or good, the cable still climbs up. There are reasons for that:

1) PM May did make a clear approach in her political tactics to call for an earlier Election, so that the issue of Brexit will be shifted to the British people again, which means, as if she wanted to say: you vote for an Out, now vote for the in charge one, who will solve for you that issue in an administrative process.

2) BOE is slowly forced to hike the rate late this year, so cable is preparing now for a up move in advance.

Technical point of view, just take your look at the chart below:

On Thursday and Friday to UTC +7 time zones, there are important economical events in the U.S. in which rate decision will be decided by Fed and FOMC statement and then NFP on Friday. We are the opinion, that Fed will keep the current 1% level, but more important is the FOMC statement. Markets are waiting for their text to map out Fed’s next move on rate.

 

Technical point of view, just take your look at the depicted chart for DXY above for more info.

Trade well!

 

Makkaba team

 

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