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Forex weekly outlook for 20-24/02/2017

The third week of February 2017 from 02/13/2017 – 02/17/2017 was mixed up and turbulent for the markets, it has been up with DXY from 2017-02-06 until 2017-02-14, and it but dropped strongly down on 2017-02-16 and closed at the end of the US trading session at 100.50 and made a minus of 59 points in comparison to its last trading day session , whereat the rejection at the level at 101.76 was on 2017-02-15 firstly and it finally closed lower than opened at 101.09, despite of positive released  economic data from the US with retail sales and CPI raised to 0.3% more than expected at 0.2%.

The US Bonds 30YR Yield curve climbed up, while XAUUSD also raised ( it was quite contradict in correlation); the US30Y and US10Y have also been raised since middle of the week. It indicated -on the one hand- that investors seek for safe haven due to a not clear concept of the Trump’s administration economic agenda but on the other hand the US economy delivered stronger data as expected which lead the market to think and believe that a rate hike by Fed is likely to occur more than twice in this year, therefore Gold gains in value, while DXY and US Bond Yield curve are also rising.

The given economic data from Wed Feb 15, 2017:

DXY in chart:



Such kind of mixed emotions we can see them in the depicted chart as below for the US30Y Yield curve, DXY, XAU/USD, US10Y, US30Y as beneath:


This coming week of Feb. 2017 from 20-24 Feb 2017, we will have a Monday on Feb 20, 2017 with less economical events; anyway, this week we will have

1) the FOMC Meeting Minutes will be released on Wed 22 Feb 2017and the markets are eyed on this for a clear signal of rates hike this year.

2) US Unemployment Claims will be also released on the next day on 02/23/2017; those data are very important for the markets to map out Fed’s decision on rate hike.

3) For the UK, there is UK GDP data to release on Feb. 22, 2017 and economists forecast for a humble growth for the second estimate GDP q/q of just 0.6% due to weak construction sector, and the business investments in UK declined ( less incomes but higher living costs), although export outweighed import due to weak cable, it makes here no bigger sense for a stronger economy in the UK, so economists.

4) Furthermore we also cannot miss the speech of the RBA Governor Philip Lowe on Thursday who opposes Trump’s policy of trade barrier (erased the TPP Agreement) . Philip calls for more investment in the infrastructure to help boost economic activity in Australia, for the population there is growing strongly. He is the opinion that the economic situations in Australia have been changed positively and expects for an average growth about 3% over the next few years, so Philip.


Those major events of the week ahead will give us some considerations to choose the products to trade on the right side.


Trade well!



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