Europe roundup; Sterling eases on fading BOE rate hike expectations, Euro rallies on upbeat economic sentiment, European shares tumble – Tuesday, February 27th, 2018
- Eurozone Feb selling price expectations increase to 12.6 vs previous 12.4
- Eurozone Feb consumer confidence Final increase to 0.1 (forecast 0.1)
- Eurozone Feb cons inflation expectations decrease to 18 vs previous 19.6
- Eurozone Feb services sentiment increase to 17.5 (forecast 16.3) vs previous 16.8 (revised from 16.7)
- Eurozone Feb industrial sentiment decrease to 8 (forecast 8) vs previous 9 (revised from 8.8)
- Eurozone Feb economic sentiment decrease to 114.1 (forecast 114) vs previous 114.9 (revised from 114.7)
- Eurozone Feb business climate decrease to 1.48 (forecast 1.47) vs previous 1.56 (revised from 1.54)
- Eurozone Jan loans to non-fin increase to 3.4 % vs previous 2.9 %
- Eurozone Jan loans to households increase to 2.9 % vs previous 2.8 %
- Eurozone Jan money-m3 annual growth stays flat at 4.6 % (forecast 4.6 %) vs previous 4.6 %
- Germany Feb BY state CPI yy decrease to 1.6 % vs previous 1.8 %
- Germany Feb BY state CPI mm increase to 0.5 % vs previous -0.7 %
- Germany Feb BW state CPI yy decrease to 1.6 % vs previous 1.7 %
- Germany Feb BW state CPI mm increase to 0.5 % vs previous -0.7 %
- Germany Feb NW state CPI yy decrease to 1.3 % vs previous 1.5 %
- Germany Feb NW state CPI mm increase to 0.5 % vs previous -0.6 %
- Germany Feb HE state CPI yy decrease to 1.1 % vs previous 1.3 %
- Germany Feb HE state CPI mm increase to 0.4 % vs previous -0.8 %
Economic Data Ahead
- (0800 ET/1300 GMT) Germany reports its preliminary consumer price index for the month of February. The index is expected to edge up 0.5 percent, after falling 0.7 percent in the previous month. On an annualized basis, it is likely to rise 1.5 percent from 1.6 percent in October.
- (0830 ET/1330 GMT) The U.S. Census Bureau is likely to report that preliminary wholesale inventories rose 0.3 percent in January after posting a gain of 0.4 percent in December.
- (0830 ET/1330 GMT) The United States releases goods trade balance data for the month of January. The economy recorded a trade deficit of $72.26 billion in the previous month.
- (0830 ET/1330 GMT) The U.S. durable goods orders are expected to have decreased 2.2 percent in January after rising 2.8 percent in December, while goods orders excluding transportations are likely to have risen 0.4 percent after gaining 0.7 percent the prior month.
- (0900 ET/1400 GMT) The S&P/Case-Shiller is expected to report that U.S. home price index of 20 metropolitan areas rose at an annualized rate of 6.3 percent in December, after posting a gain of 6.4 percent in the previous month.
- (0900 ET/1400 GMT) The Federal Housing Finance Agency releases its housing price index for the month of December. The index gained 0.4 percent in November.
- (1000 ET/1500 GMT) Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond will publish it Manufacturing Index for February. The index posted a rise of 14 in the prior month.
- (1000 ET/1500 GMT) The U.S. Conference Board is likely to show a rise in its consumer confidence index for the month of February to 126.6 from a final reading of 125.4 in January.
- (1600 ET/2100 GMT) Canada will release its latest annual federal budget.
- (1630 ET/2130 GMT) API reports its weekly crude oil stock.
Key Events Ahead
- (1000 ET/1500 GMT) U.S. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell delivers semi-annual monetary policy testimony before the House Financial Services Committee in Washington.
DXY: The dollar index consolidated within narrow ranges, as investors turned cautious ahead of Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell’s Congressional testimony. The greenback against a basket of currencies traded 0.1 percent down at 89.82, having touched a high of 90.24 on Thursday, its highest since Feb. 13. FxWirePro’s Hourly Dollar Strength Index stood at 23.11 (Neutral) by 0900 GMT.
EUR/USD: The euro surged, extending previous session gains, however, the upside remained capped as investors were seen unlikely to take on big positions this week ahead of key political events in Europe. The European currency traded 0.1 percent up at 1.2328, having touched a low of 1.2265 Thursday, its lowest since Feb. 14. FxWirePro’s Hourly Euro Strength Index stood at 88.44 (Slightly Bullish) by 0900 GMT. Immediate resistance is located at 1.2368 (10-DMA), a break above targets 1.2410. On the downside, support is seen at 1.2245 (Feb 7 Low), a break below could drag it lower 1.2205 (Feb 9 Low).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged up, reversing some of its previous session losses, ahead of testimony from new Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell that could determine whether the U.S. currency would recover from a 3-year low. The major was trading 0.1 percent up at 107.02, having hit a high of 107.90 on Wednesday, its highest since Feb.14. FxWirePro’s Hourly Yen Strength Index stood at 49.28 (Neutral) by 0900 GMT. Investors’ will continue to track broad-based market sentiment, ahead of U.S. goods trade balance, durable goods orders and housing price index. Immediate resistance is located at 107.90 (Feb 21. High), a break above targets 108.50. On the downside, support is seen at 106.09, a break below could take it lower 105.60.
GBP/USD: Sterling declined, extending previous session losses on the back of fading expectations of Bank of England’s May interest rate hike and Brexit-related headlines. The major traded 0.1 percent down at 1.3952, having hit a low of 1.3858 on Thursday, it’s lowest since Feb 14. FxWirePro’s Hourly Sterling Strength Index stood at 81.82 (Slightly Bullish) by 0900 GMT. Immediate resistance is located at 1.4050, a break above could take it near 1.4104 (Feb 15 High). On the downside, support is seen at 1.3904 (Feb 21 Low), a break below targets 1.3845. Against the euro, the pound was trading 0.2 percent down at 88.37 pence, having hit a high of 87.71 pence on Thursday, it’s highest since Feb. 8.
USD/CHF: The Swiss franc rose, reversing most of its previous session losses, as the greenback eased ahead of testimony from new Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell. The major trades 0.1 percent down at 0.9367, having touched a high of 0.9409 on Thursday, it’s highest since Feb. 9. FxWirePro’s Hourly Swiss Franc Strength Index stood at -1.54 (Neutral) by 0900 GMT. On the higher side, near-term resistance is around 0.9467 and any break above will take the pair to next level till 0.9500. The near-term support is around 0.9285 and any close below that level will drag it till 0.9210.
European shares eased, while the dollar consolidated within narrow ranges ahead of testimony from the new U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell later in the day that could provide clues about future rate hikes.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index declined 0.1 percent to 382.72 points, while the FTSEurofirst 300 index plunged 0.1 percent to 1,499.05 points.
Britain’s FTSE 100 trades 0.2 percent higher at 7,303.40 points, while mid-cap FTSE 250 gained 0.4 percent to 19,912.49 points.
Germany’s DAX fell 0.05 percent at 12,523.22 points; France’s CAC 40 trades 0.1 percent up at 5,347.97 points.
Crude oil prices declined as investor concerns about rising U.S. oil output offset signs of stronger demand and faith in the ability of OPEC production curbs to curtail supply. International benchmark Brent crude was trading 0.3 percent down at $67.30 per barrel by 0915 GMT, having hit a high of $67.86 the day before, its highest since Feb. 7. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was trading 0.5 percent down at $63.64 a barrel, after rising as high as $64.21 on, its strongest since Feb. 7.
Gold prices slightly eased as investors awaited U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s first congressional testimony for clues on the future pace of monetary tightening. Spot gold was 0.05 percent down at $1,332.80 an ounce at 0918 GMT, having fallen to its lowest level since Feb. 14 at $1,320.85 on Thursday. U.S. gold futures were up 0.2 percent at $1,335.90 per ounce.
The 10-year U.S Treasury yield stood at 2.866 percent higher by 0.007 bps, while 5-year yield was 0.001 bps up at 2.614 percent.
The Japanese government bond prices tracked gains in U.S. Treasuries and edged up, with the yield curve steepening slightly after an auction of two-year debt attracted strong investor demand. The two-year yield fell 1 basis point to minus 0.165 percent, while the 40-year yield slipped 0.5 basis point to 0.880 percent.
The Australian government bond futures were mostly flat too, with the three-year bond contract down half a tick at 97.925 and the 10-year contract steady at 97.2350. The New Zealand government bonds were unchanged.
Source: FXWire Media Round Ups