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USD/CAD Risks Testing 1.2940 Level Amid Nafta Talks

USD/CAD already trading close to high-frequency fair value while positioning in the loonie looks stretched, signaling the start of Nafta talks might favor upside momentum in pair, TD Securities strategists Brittany Baumann, Mark McCormick and Andrew Kelvin write in note.
• Risk of any country withdrawing from Nafta or “an outright trade war” remains less than 5%; ultimately, expect the renegotiations to result in “a new, modernized agreement”
• NOTE: First round of Nafta negotiations set to begin Wednesday

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