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Forex – Weekly Outlook: November 13 – 17

Investing.com – The dollar ticked down to one-week lows against a basket of the other major currencies on Friday amid growing doubts over whether Republicans will be able to push through their tax overhaul this year.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, slid 0.13% to 94.30 in late trade. For the week, the index was down 0.61%, snapping three straight weeks of gains.

Senate Republicans unveiled a tax plan on Thursday that differed from the one crafted by House Republicans, highlighting the challenges to reconciling the differences between the two plans with just a short time before the year-end deadline they have set to pass it.

Hopes of tax reform have helped boost the dollar since mid-September. Some traders believe tax reforms could bolster growth, adding pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, known as the “Trumpflation” trade.

The euro was up 0.21% to 1.1667 late Friday and ended the week with a gain of 0.45%.

The dollar was little changed against the yen, with USD/JPY at 113.56 late Friday. For the week the pair was down 0.53%.

Sterling pushed higher, with GBP/USD adding on 0.35% to end at 1.3191. The pound was boosted as better-than-expected data on British manufacturing output and easing concerns over the progress of Brexit talks underpinned the currency.

Sterling was also higher against the euro, with EUR/GBP sliding 0.16% to 0.8842 late Friday.

In the week ahead, inflation readings will matter most for global financial markets, with the U.S., UK, euro zone and Canada all set to release CPI data.

Investors will also be focusing on the Central Bank Communications Conference hosted by the ECB, with a panel discussion including the heads of the European, U.S., British and Japanese central banks in the spotlight.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

 

Monday, November 13

 

Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker is due to speak at an event in Tokyo.

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is to make remarks on monetary policy at an event in Zurich.

 

Tuesday, November 14

 

Australia is to release data on business confidence.

China is to publish reports on industrial production, fixed asset investment and retail sales.

Germany is to release preliminary data on third quarter economic growth. Meanwhile the ZEW Institute is to produce data on German economic sentiment.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney are among central bankers due to speak at an event hosted by the ECB in Frankfurt.

The UK is to produce inflation data.

The euro zone is to release preliminary data on third quarter growth.

The U.S. is to publish data on producer prices.

 

Wednesday, November 15

 

Japan is to release preliminary data on third quarter growth.

Chicago Fed President Charles Evans is to speak in London.

The UK is to publish its latest employment report.

The U.S. is to release data on inflation and retail sales along with a report on manufacturing activity in the New York region.

 

Thursday, November 16

 

Australia is to release its latest jobs report.

The UK is to report on retail sales.

The euro zone is to release revised inflation data.

Canada is to report on manufacturing sales and foreign securities purchases.

The U.S. is to release reports on jobless claims, industrial production, import prices and manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.
BoE Governor Mark Carney is to speak at an event in Liverpool.

 

Friday, November 17

 

ECB President Mario Draghi is to speak in Frankfurt.

Canada is to report on inflation.

The U.S. is to wrap up the week with data on building permits and housing starts.

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