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Forex Weekly Outlook from March 27,2017-March 31, 2017

Mon Mar 27

  • JPY BOJ Summary of Opinions
  • EUR German Ifo Business Climate
  • EUR M3 Money Supply y/y

JPY

Recently USD has been facing a huge lost in decreasing its value against most other currencies due to some unclear politics decisions in the USA.

This week we start with the USDJPY

On Monday, we hava an economical event in Japan, in which the Summary of opinions of the BOJ will be released. Recently the Governor of the Bank of Japan, Mr. Kuroda has expressed out that the 2% target inflation is still faraway to reach, therefore BOJ will still keep the stimulus program intact, which means that a continuing devaluation of the JPY is still a MUST for the Japanese economy.

Anyway, according to our opinion a program which has been set to reach the target but in a too longer time cannot be fulfilled, then it will bring more doubts for the markets.

In a technical point of view, we have analyzed and found out  some important levels for the USDJPY for this week, so take your look at the depicted chart below for your reference:

 

 

EUR

The German Ifo Business climate will also be released on this day and also about the M3 Money supply y/y.

 The EUR has increased against the USD since about 60 trading days with around 3.97%9( 413 pips) but in the last trading session on Friday, it lost the a further momentum to make a further high and closed at 1.07962.

 

In a technical point of view, we see that the price is recently located somewhere between the decisive level, at which it can be led for a further up or pushed down. For a further up, then the prices need to break out the level @1.088xx and closed above there with D1 candle, thus EURUSD will reach its destinations at the zone of 1.0977x and even up to 1.110xx. For a bearish scenario is that EURUSD will cease to raise and break down the handle 1.074xx handle at D1 TF (closed below), then we will think for a lower destination at 1.0637x.

 

More about just take a look at the depicted chart for your reference:

 

Tue Mar 28

  • USD CB Consumer Confidence
  • CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks

USD

Might be some of those data currently like CB Consumer Confidence, CPI etc. are as indicators for the Fed to decide their money policy to balance the price stability; anyway in the current situations in the U.S., the markets are more interested in the political plans of the Trump’s administration; the Healthcare bill was just withdrawn from the house and make a remark that the political visions of the President Donald Trump have not convinced both the Democrats and Republican parties in a certain degree. After the Health care will follow the tax proposals, so a lots of volatilities are waiting for the markets in the coming days.    

Technical point of view, The DXY,  as we updated last week about, is currently in its critical level. A further down and breaking the level of 99.2x, then next destination could be occurred at fibs 0.5@97.8x.

Take a look at the depicted chart for more info:

CAD

 

There is a speak of Gov Poloz of the BOC today, anyway the CPI in the Canadian economy was still very low last year (around 0.9% in total), so whether today there would be a higher CPI as expected, I do not think that there will make impact on the USDCAD.

Technical point of views we see some levels for USDCAD at following, so take your look at the chart below for further reference:

 

 

 

Wed Mar 29

  • JPY retail sales y/y
  • GBP Net lending to Individuals m/m
  • USD Pending home sales
  • USD Crude Oil Inventories

Today there will be more actions for the pairs GBPUSD. The net lending to individuals m/m will reveal to the markets some further clues about British economical sentiments, so let’s see what for number we will get.

 

Technical point of views we have still not changed our mind about the levels of this pair, because it is still I a range as we updated in the last weeks about.

Here again a chart for your reference:

Thu Mar 30

  • AUD HIA New Home Sales m/mb
  • USD Final GDP q/q ( total last year= 5%)
  • USD Unemployment claims

 

AUD

In the last RBA statement there was lacked a hawkish tone, hence AUD lost some momentums to move up against the USD. A positive New home sales today, we think that it can bring the AUDUSD up again, else it needs to fight to stay above 0.76000, else a further downside can be happened again.

 

 See the chart for your reference:

Fri Mar 31

  • JPY House hold Spending y/y
  • NZD ANZ Business Confidence
  • AUD Private sector credit
  • EUR German retail sales
  • EUR German Unemployment Change
  • GBP GDP q/q ( last year total 2.3%)
  • CAD GDP m/m ( last year total 1%)

Follow the released GDP in the USA yesterday, today GDPs in Canada and England are released. Canada was weak last year with its GDP just 1% in total; In England the GDP was last year also just 2.3%, so both are still lower than the USA last year with 5% GDP in total, therefore those are also one of the reasons why both those currencies have been losing their values against the greenbacks so much last year.

 

Technical point of views just takes your look at the charts above for more reference.

 

Trade well!

 

m2m

 

 

 

 

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