Monday and Tuesday
AUD, CAD and USD
- AUD retail sales m/m
- AUD Cash rate
- AUD RBA rate statement
- CAD trade balance
- USD trade balance
This week we start with the Aussie due to some very important events will be occurred in the Australian economy. AUD last week, before the Fed Chair Yellen spoken, was sharply lost about 1.35% against the USD in one trading day but it recovered on the last trading day of last week around 0.33% again.
This week on Monday and Tuesday there is retail sales m/m will be released and following on Tuesday Cash rate will also be decided, and we think traders will but more focus on the RBA statement to map out the next steps of the RBA.
In a technical point of view, we are the opinion that AUDUSD is currently at D1 TF in a corrective phase and it next raise in value against the greenback will be coming soon, namely it will reach up to the level of 0.82xxx .
On Tuesday the trade balances for Canada and USA will also be released, but the results according to our point of view will not affect those both currencies so much, due to the big event for the CAD was already released that the BOC had not changed the benchmark of their interest rate last week, moreover traders and investors will focus on the labor markets of those two countries on this coming Friday.
Wed Mar 08
- GBP Annual Budget release
- USD Non-Farm-Employment-Change
- USD Crude Oil Inventories
There is Annual Budget release and that event actually has no immediately affect on the cable but that is very important news to figure out the fiscal position of the economic situations of the country. About the fundamental point of view with cable, we still think cable is still in the phase of non-direction due to the political situations at the moment are just too complicated and hence they affect on the currency very sentimentally. In a technical point of view, cable is still trading in the range as last week we updated (here is the link: http://m2m-vn.com/en/forex-weekly-outlook-feb-27-mar-03-2017/) ; anyway at the end of last week GBP simply lost its smaller upside side in a downward trend and has been trading now against the USD on the downside of a downward trend, but still in the range:
To take back the last position, GBP must yet fight against USD to reach its position at the upper side at around 1.24xxx firstly, then we can say there are some positive signs for it, else all are just as a try to get up but by a small negative news can push cable down again. So quite dangerous to play with GBPUSD currently.
Labor markets are the main topic for this week, ADP for NFP in the U.S. will provide us some more details about the NFP on this Friday. But we think the decision for hiking the rates yet decided by the speech of Fed Chair Yellen last week(https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20170303a.htm) and we still believe that 0.25 basis points will be hiked in the Middle of this month and it is a MUST, independent of the NFP result this week.
The DXY was down in the last trading day of last week but it had broken out our significant level at 101.70 in its 4th corrective wave in a uptrend and is still supported around the levels of 100.6x. Whether DXY can break the 3rd wave with it highest closed level at 103.25 ( according to our chart data at tradingview.com) to perform a valid 5th wave is of course still unclear.
Hereby is the chart for DXY this week:
Thu Mar 09
- EUR Minimum bid rate
- EUR ECB press conference
- USD Unemployment Claim
We have a very interesting combination of events on this day for EUR against USD! ECB will decide on its bid rate and there is ECB conference and the Unemployment claim in the U.S.
In a technical point of view, we see that surprisingly EUR did make a change of around 1.12% against USD in the last trading week session.
In a fundamental point of view, there is important event for the European Union at the end of March and it seems to be positive for EU by making some” reforms” /”changes”
Fri Mar 10
- GBP Manufacturing Production m/m
- CAD Employment Change
- CAD Unemployment rate
- USD NFP
- USD Unemployment Rate
GBP and CAD we think will be overshadowed by the NFP release in the U.S. on that day. GBP has more to do with other problems than a single data of its manufacturing production m/m outcome, therefore as mentioned above that firstly GBP needs to fight getting back its latest upside position to be able to figure out, whether the sentiment for buying it is high or not.
About the CAD , if there is a positive in the employment change, then for a longer view on CAD is to say that it slowly gains back its value onward the USD.
In a technical point of view as we update last week the chart for USDCAD, hereby we update it again with the same chart and are the opinion that a significant level for USD against CAD should be traded above the price zone at 1.342xx again, then a further upward movement for USD is clearer; but it was obviously that at that level USD retraced, see the chart here again:
So are some of our thoughts for this trading week, and we hope that a great and profitable week is waiting for us.