Very fast, a week was behind us again and a new trading week is coming ahead by tomorrow.
This week we start with EUR at first:
Mon Mar 13
- EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
There is ECB conference and ECB president Mr. Draghi will speak about the current monetary policy. As it was hinted that further aggressive stimulus will be ceased by the ECB and rate hike is near, and on the other hand the European Union leaders are on the way to make some reforms and changes to improve EU, so that a new optimistic hope about EU is revived and give EUR against USD a new upward movement.
In our technical point of view, we can see in the drawn chart that the sensitive price zone which would provide EUR vs. USD a downward movement at from 1.0506x-1.0531x has been supported quite well. Before NFP last week, EUR had already prepared a pop up against the USD and after the news was released, straightly forward makes EUR a move nearby the level 1.07000 against the bucks.
In case EUR will break the level 1.089xx again vs. the USD, then let’s say EUR has joined the upside level .
Tue Mar 14
- AUD NAB Business Confidence
- CNY Industrial Production y/y
- German Final CPI m/m
- German ZEW Economic Sentiment
- PPI m/m
Last week the RBA kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.5 % due to the optimistic of RBA over the Australian economy growth, which means that a rate cut is not, at least in the near future, planned by RBA.
In technical point of view, Aussie has been well supported at around 0.749xx – 0.7500xx up to now; it is also a sensitive level, which is located between the level to keep to pop up, or the level which would be broken down, then a further heading south is expected. We are the opinion that above 0.7601x, then Aussie will be on the upside against the bucks.
So a further info about Aussie will be released this week, firstly we will see how the NAB Business Confidence will be, in case it would be more than expected, or equal as expected, than the statement of RBA will be based on a firmly ground.
German final CPI m/m will also be released today, and it will provide an important clue for the decision of ECB about rate hike .
In technical point of view, just take the chart above for more info about the trading range for EUR vs. USD.
Producer price index. m/m (PPI) will be released in the U.S. today. The Fed is of course looking for that together with the CPI to decide their monetary policy. Anyway we believe that the consumer inflation and consumer price inflation play here at the current situation in the U.S. a not as a main factor/big role for Fed, although they always mentioned that 2% CPI must be reached to decide hiking the rate, in fact CPI was reached last year in total sum more than 2% but rate hike has been moderating; the reasons for that lie in the US GDP and the average wages, both are just not strong enough and it indicates a weak/not strong enough economy.
This week we have lots of events of central banks included Fed. We will get more info about the FOMC statement this week. The quite clear thing is that 0.25 basis points will be being hiked by Fed but the markets looking for other clue, namely how many % will Fed hike the rate this year, 3.0% or 3.5%?
Let’s see what will happen this week!
Wed Mar 15 and Thursday Mar 16
There is a list important economic events for:
We put both those dates together here in one line:
Central Banks Days!
Personally I am interested in the BOJ. What will they do? They have a quite positive business growth, but the average wages are still low. How will they do the next steps with the stimulus programs? How much and for how long?
Due to the events on those two dates are very complex more than in a short type of overview report like this, we remain with the current view about .
Fri Mar 16
- CAD Manufacturing Sales
After those two full of actions date, we have now a Friday with CAD manufacturing sales only to mention. As once we have charted the USDCAD, we still keep that chart structure for today and eye on the current level of USDCAD at around 1.34613 as the upside level for USD, because the level at 1.34121 was broken out last weak, which we meant there is a upside for the bucks. That upside of course can be maintained, if 1.3412x remains as support zone and the upper drawn channel at 1.3691x can be touched soon. A break out that channel can lead USD vs. CAD then to 1.398xx.
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