Wednesday , January 24 2018
Home / Blogs / Forex – Weekly outlook: July 31 – August 4
An employee of a bank counts US dollar notes at a branch in Hanoi, Vietnam May 16, 2016. REUTERS/Kham

Forex – Weekly outlook: July 31 – August 4

Investing.com – The dollar was broadly weaker against a basket of the other major currencies on Friday after data showing that U.S. economic growth accelerated in the second quarter, but wage growth remained sluggish.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, ended down 0.61% at 93.20, the lowest close since June 22, 2016.

The index has fallen around 2.3% so far this month and is down around 9% for the year to date.

The Commerce Department said Friday that gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.6% in the three months to June, which included a boost from consumer spending. That was more than double the 1.2% growth seen in the first quarter.

But separate reports showed that wage growth and inflation remained subdued in the second quarter.

The Labor Department said wages and salaries increased 0.5% after accelerating 0.8% in the first quarter.

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index excluding food and energy, increased at a 0.9% rate, the slowest increase in over two years.

The subdued inflation outlook has raised doubts over whether the Federal Reserve will be able to stick to plans for a third interest rate hike this year.

The Fed left rates on hold on Wednesday and said it expected to start shrinking its balance sheet “relatively soon.”

Declining expectations for fiscal stimulus under the Trump administration have also fed into recent dollar weakness.

The euro rose against the dollar on Friday, with EUR/USD up 0.63% at 1.1749, not far from the two-and-a-half year highs of 1.1775 set on Thursday.

The euro has risen 2.84% against the dollar so far this month and has gained around 11% for the year to date, making it the best performing major currency against the dollar.

The euro has been boosted by expectations that the European Central Bank will soon start to wind down its stimulus program.

The dollar fell to six-week lows against the yen, with USD/JPY down 0.5% at 110.68 late Friday.

In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on Friday’s U.S. jobs report for fresh indications on the possible direction of Federal Reserve policy through the end of the year.

Central bank meetings in the UK and Australia will also be in focus. Meanwhile, the euro zone is to release preliminary data on inflation and second quarter growth.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, July 31

China is to release data on manufacturing and service sector activity.

New Zealand is to produce a report on business confidence.

The euro zone is to publish a preliminary estimate of inflation, while Germany is to report on retail sales.

The UK is to publish data on net lending.

The U.S. is to release data on pending homes sales and business activity in the Chicago area.

Tuesday, August 1

China is to publish its Caixin manufacturing PMI.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish a rate statement which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision.

The euro zone is to release preliminary data on second quarter economic growth.

The UK is to release data on manufacturing activity.

The U.S. is to release data on personal spending and the Institute for Supply Management is to publish its manufacturing index.

Wednesday, August 2

New Zealand is to release its quarterly jobs report.

Australia is to report on building approvals.

The UK is to release data on construction activity.

The U.S. is to release the ADP nonfarm payrolls report.

Thursday, August 3

Australia is to report on the trade balance.

The UK is to release data on service sector activity.

The Bank of England is to announce its latest interest rate decision and publish its meeting minute’s along with its quarterly inflation report. BoE Governor Mark Carney, along with other officials, is to hold a press conference to discuss the inflation report.

The U.S. is to release data on jobless claims, factory orders and the ISM is to publish its non-manufacturing index.

Friday, August 4

The RBA is to publish its latest monetary policy statement, while Australia is to release data on retail sales.

Both Canada and the U.S. are to round up the week with data on trade and both countries are also set to release their monthly employment reports.

 

Sent by Investing

About Makkaba Co., Ltd.

Makkaba Co., Ltd.

Hotline: (+84)(0) 904935786; Tel.: (+84) (0)28.35208726
Email: m2mtradingsignals@gmail.com - Phone:

Check Also

Americas roundup: Euro stronger ahead of ECB meeting, Dollar index weak, US stocks hits record high, Oil ends higher after volatile trade on Dollar, Libya output-january 23rd 2018

Americas roundup: Euro stronger ahead of ECB meeting, Dollar index weak, US stocks hits record …

Europe roundup: Sterling firm above 1.3900, Dollar eases across the board on U.S. government shutdown, European shares advance – Monday, January 22nd, 2018

Europe roundup: Sterling firm above 1.3900, Dollar eases across the board on U.S. government shutdown, …

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *